Medvedev is trying, but no one really believes it

Medvedev really does seem to be trying to establish himself as independent political figure from Putin, but the picture in the mainstream Russian media comes across that it's still Putin who is in charge. Last night we saw a huge ceremonial meeting in Volgograd, ahead of Victory day on May 9th. The President was there, with a load of senior ministers, governors, and a lot of discussions about things like veterans' housing and Medvedev was making tough talk about chasing regions which were not following through on promises to provide housing to veterans. He really did seem presidential.

The only problem was that at the same time, Putin was in Moscow, in heavy discussions with the Ukrainian prime minister about gas prices and gas transit, and it all just seemed more serious. Not just because the Ukraine gas situation allows you to steal billions, whereas there are only millions at stake with veterans' housing. It was just that it seemed clear that Putin has retained control of the really big issues in Russian government, and Medvedev does not really seem to impinge on them.

For instance, there was a big meeting last week about modernisation and technology, two of Medvedev's favourite topics. It now seems clear that a lot of criticism of the Federal Migration Service (FMS) came out of that meeting. The new national technopark is to be based near Skolkovo, a new, modern business school that is to breed national champions, and its associated technopark will be Russia's Silicon Valley. Only the business school has pointed out that it's virtually impossible for them to hire Western talent because of Russia's migration laws. One administrator says: "Once the candidates start to see what is required of them to start coming to work here, they start looking at opportunities in Brazil and India."

A sure sign of this criticism was a big photo event two days later, where Putin visited the FMS, and they proudly showed off a new database. The thing is, the FMS is Putin's sphere of influence, because it relates to security, the border and, most importantly customs. Control of this allows him and his allies to skim off billions (just look at the quality of buildings that the State Customs Committee works in) and he isn't letting this go. So this was Putin saying: "This is my area, it's all fine, don't criticise me."

Today in Vedomosti there is a lead article saying that the rules for migration need to change, and the FMS has promised to put together new rules that will start working from the beginning of 2011. But no one has been fired at the FMS, and presumably the new rules are a concession that are designed to ward off criticism, and make sure that there is no increased oversight of the FMS. Because oversight could mean that Putin starts to lose control. Medvedev's problem is that he has no leverage - he could use the courts, or the prosecutors, like Putin did when he came to power, but they are already controlled by Putin. Essentially, Medvedev needs a Praetorian Guard (although maybe Saddam's Imperial Guard is a better analogy), and that is just not his style.